A recent report on Mayor LaToya Cantrell’s approval rating — a twisted analysis if ever we’ve seen one — suggests that residents of New Orleans don’t like her much.
The news report in the local daily was based on a telephone survey of 800 people conducted by pollster, Ron Faucheux, in early June, with the phone survey indicating that 32 percent of those that answered approved of the Mayor’s performance, while a whopping 59 percent have a problem with the Mayor’s performance. The numbers, the article goes on to state, are similar to ratings from a 2023 survey, meaning her approval rating has not changed from last year. Let’s face it: those numbers are not great, especially if they actually mirror the sentiments of residents. But we don’t think they do, and we gladly tell you why.
There is so much to unpack here. Where do we begin?
Opening suitcase: Twenty-two months ago, a campaign financed by wealthy White business people hiding behind Black faces to recall the Mayor started, with those organizing the failed recall specifically citing a rise in violent crime as one of the primary reasons why Mayor Cantrell deserved to be ousted.
Today, crime is on the decline. In fact, mainstream media is falling all over itself to report the declining crime stats; and folk still have a problem with Cantrell. Some folk were adamant that Cantrell needed to go because crime was out of control. Now, law enforcement officials are getting a handle on crime, and the Mayor’s approval rating is still low.
That is because crime was never the issue. The Mayor was responsible for the temporary appointment of former interim NOPD superintendent, Michelle Woodfork. Let’s remember that it was Woodfork who actually ushered in the downward trend in crime. Cantrell then appointed current Supt. Anne Kirkpatrick, who has continued to lead NOPD’s effort to reduce crime in New Orleans. According to statistics, crime is down 27 percent compared to this time last year. And y’all still don’t like her? In fact, her approval rating rose only five points from 24 percent to 29 percent when the respondents were specifically asked about how she is handling crime.
We are not ones to say, “we told you so,” but . . . who are we kidding. We, at The New Orleans Tribune, told you so! We told our readers back in late August 2022 to approach that recall mess with as many grains of salt as they could handle. We knew then that it had nothing to do with quality of life, violent crime, the Mayor’s travel schedule or New Orleans’ busted streets. It was about power and influence, and it was an all-out attack on Black leadership, pure and simple.
At this point, we are convinced that LaToya Cantrell could get out here in a hard hat and safety vest with an asphalt mixer, paver, and rollers and pave streets with her very own hands, and the disdain some feel for her would still be through the roof. She could personally handcuff every hardened criminal walking the streets of New Orleans and wouldn’t catch a break.
Quite frankly we have speculated that this is the primary reason the Mayor appears to thumb her nose at her critics as she continues to travel near and far on city business or is spotted at some event turning up and having a good time to the feigned chagrin of detractors. Haters are going hate, and since nothing she could do will please those who are intent on finding fault, she might as well do as she pleases. Like we said, that’s just speculation on our part. But if we’re right, we understand and are in total agreement.
The city’s biggest issue, its most glaring problem is on the right track, headed in the right direction, and the Mayor is still the target of ire. We’d go to Dubai to get away from some of y’all, too.
By the way, this is not a carry-on bag. This is checked luggage, one of those big suitcases on wheels – 30 inches high, nearly 20 inches wide, and almost a foot deep. In other words, there’s a lot more to unpack. Let’s see.
Oh yeah, the Mayor was not the only subject of the recent telephone survey. Respondents were also prompted to weigh in on Supt. Kirkpatrick, who scored a 49 percent approval rating and a 20 percent disapproval rating. Thing is, we can’t help but wonder why in this same survey last year, former Supt. Woodfork’s approval rating was six points lower, and her disapproval rating was six points higher.
Again, it was Woodfork who led NOPD as crime began to trend down in this city. No slight against Kirkpatrick, whom we are sure is doing a good job; but somebody has to say it. So we will. We say, race is a factor.
Woodfork became interim Superintendent in December 2022 and served until Kirkpatrick’s appointment in September 2023. At the time these surveys were conducted, the two women had served as the city’s top cop for about six months and nine months, respectively. It is not as if the current superintendent, who led police departments in Spokane, Wash., and Oakland, Calif., before coming to New Orleans, led NOPD much longer than New Orleans native and NOPD veteran Michelle Woodfork did at the time each was the subject of the survey to warrant such a difference in their approval ratings. So until someone gives us a better reason for the marked difference, we will go with bias and racism.
Who Got the Calls?
The suitcase just got a little lighter, but there’s still a lot more stuff inside. We promised to circle back to why we don’t believe this survey is an accurate reflection of the sentiments of most New Orleanians. Yes, we are still unpacking.
New Orleans is home to more than 356,000 residents. This was a survey of 800 people.
Why a survey of 800 people out of more than 356,000 (just a bit over two-thousandths of a percent of the city’s residents) is front page Metro section news is beyond us.
Yes, we know that the experts say a survey sample size should be no larger than 10 percent of a population, and even then, should not exceed 1,000 people. But we contend that a racially lopsided survey sample that barely represents one-fourth of one percent of the population is statistically irrelevant. Plainly, you cannot survey 800 people as a way to accurately gauge what 356,000 people think or feel, especially when the survey sample does not accurately mirror the community. And it certainly should not be used to shape and guide political discourse. Cut it out.
Given the cloud of criticism and non-stop, petty political infighting at City Hall that has marked Mayor Cantrell’s second term, we assert that a headline about the Mayor’s low approval rating ought to be based on a survey of more than any 800 people. Seriously, what is this? Family Feud? Are we surveying 800 people at the mall for a game show?
Eight hundred people! More than that filled the Smoothie King Center on June 10 to see Megan the Stallion and GloRilla – a hot girl summer indeed. And Mayor Cantrell is so hot that her critics, with the help of local mainstream media, will not miss an opportunity to damage her reputation as this city’s leader.
And that is why a survey like this gets conducted and why a mainstream media outlet reports the Mayor has low approval rating based on a survey the size of an extended family reunion. And just as we predicted, it feeds into the negative narrative that continues to be promulgated about this Mayor. It helps to drive the momentum that will lead to Black New Orleanians losing political capital in this city. Black folk better wake up and stay wide-awake.
Getting rid of Cantrell in a recall effort failed miserably, but that does not stop her critics from dragging her name through the mud every chance they get, with all Black leadership in New Orleans taking hits along the way.
This is exactly why the Black press remains so relevant and necessary. Maybe no one else will say it, but y’all know we will. Just because it’s printed in black and white doesn’t mean it’s right.
We have another question. Who got the calls? How many of those 800 survey participants were Black, we wonder? It’s a valid question considering that, according the survey; Cantrell’s approval rating among Black residents is 46 percent – 14 points higher than her overall rating. Conversely, her approval among White residents is 11 percent. If 46 percent of the Black people surveyed approve of Cantrell while only 11 percent of the White respondents approve of her job performance, a whole bunch of White New Orleanians were surveyed in comparison to Black residents to get to an overall 32 percent approval rating. Otherwise, it makes no sense that in a city that is still about 58 percent Black, a telephone survey of just 800 residents would yield a 32 percent overall approval rating. Now, y’all are playing on our tops as we suspect the racial bias entrenched in this survey runs as deep as the Mississippi River.
At this point, we need to see zip codes and an entire neighborhood-by-neighborhood breakdown of who pollster Ron Faucheux called. Because those numbers clearly indicate that if more Black people had been called (at least in a quantity that reflects their majority status in the city’s population), the Mayor’s overall approving rating would have been higher.
We have not always agreed with Mayor Cantrell, but what you will not catch us doing is sitting silently while a survey of 800 people, most of them likely White, is blatantly used to suggest that the overwhelming majority of residents do not approve of her.
Get over it; the residents of this city were just fine with her last spring when Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck foiled that recall attempt.
And the truth is who cares about telephone surveys of 800 people. That’s a wedding guest list.
Like her or not, Mayor Cantrell has about 18 months remaining in her second and final term as mayor.
Like her or not, crime is on the decline under her watch.
She protected this city and its most vulnerable residents during the COVID-19 pandemic.
She wrangled with the legislature to get New Orleans a larger share of hospitality taxes generated in this city.
Like her or not, she is the fifth Black mayor New Orleans has had. And our concern is that if we sit back while elite interests and mainstream media deride her without calling them out when they are wrong and protecting our own interests as a community, she will certainly be the last Black mayor for a long time, unless we upset the setup.